Austin Housing Market Report: October 2026 Update

The Austin housing market slowed noticeably in September 2026. Closed sales across the metro fell 14.8% from a year earlier, while the median price held roughly flat at $421,000, according to the Unlock MLS September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report. The biggest reason is simple: mortgage rates climbed back above 7%.

For buyers, that means a market with plenty of choice and real negotiating room, if you can make the payment work. For sellers, it means pricing and presentation matter more than they have in years. Inventory sits at about 5.4 months, which is buyer's market territory.

This page is our evergreen monthly report. September data is the newest available (Unlock MLS released it on October 13), so that is what leads below, with August 2026 numbers for context.

The headline numbers

Here's the metro snapshot for the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA from Unlock MLS:

A few things stand out.

Sales dropped hard. September's 14.8% decline in closed sales is a big one-month drop. Unlock MLS research advisor Vaike O'Grady tied it directly to the recent jump in rates and noted how sensitive the market is right now, especially for first-time buyers.

The median price ticked up, but don't read too much into it. A 1.4% gain on far fewer sales usually reflects which homes sold, not a change in value. When entry-level buyers step back because of rates, the mix of closings shifts toward higher-priced homes and pulls the median up. The Q3 2026 metro median was $420,000, down 2.3% from Q3 2025, which is a better read on the trend.

Inventory is high but not climbing. Active listings were actually down 3.4% year over year. In our experience, some sellers are pulling homes rather than cutting prices, while new construction fills part of the gap.

Mortgage rates are back above 7%

Rates are the story of the fall. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed average at 7.40% for the week of October 15, 2026. It crossed 7% in late September (7.03% the week of September 24) for the first time since January 2025. A year ago it was about 6.34%, and in January 2026 it was close to 6.1%.

On a $400,000 loan, the difference between 6.1% and 7.4% is roughly $340 a month in principal and interest. That's enough to push some buyers down a price band or out of the market for now. You can run your own numbers with our mortgage calculator.

Freddie Mac's survey assumes strong credit and 20% down, so your quote may be higher or lower. Talk to your lender about current pricing, points, and whether a builder or seller rate buydown makes sense for you.

Days on market: still the slowest big market

Unlock MLS doesn't publish days on market in its monthly release, so we lean on Redfin for this one. Redfin reported in early 2026 that Austin had become the slowest major U.S. housing market, with a median of 106 days to go under contract in December 2025 versus about 60 nationally. Through the first half of 2026, Redfin's metro median was roughly 89 days. Redfin also estimates prices are around 24% below the May 2022 peak.

Our own experience matches the data. Homes that are clean, priced right, and well marketed still go under contract in a few weeks. Homes priced on 2022 memories sit, take price cuts, and often sell for less than if they'd been priced correctly on day one.

By county: where the market is softer or firmer

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Smaller counties have fewer sales, so their month-to-month swings are bigger.

What we take from this:

• Williamson County is the steadiest part of the metro. It had the most pending activity growth in August (+9.3% year over year) and sits at about five months of supply. Round Rock, Georgetown, Hutto, and Leander are seeing real buyer traffic, helped by builder incentives. See our Cedar Park vs. Round Rock comparison if you're deciding between the two.
• Hays County's 10.8% price jump came on a 30% drop in sales. That's a mix effect, not a boom. Kyle and Buda still have a lot of new-construction inventory competing for buyers.
• Bastrop and Caldwell have the most inventory relative to sales. Buyers there have the most leverage in the metro.
• The City of Austin median is up year over year, but sales are down and inventory is above five months. Central neighborhoods are holding value better than the outer ring, a pattern we've seen all year.

For longer-run charts and neighborhood-level detail, see our market trends page.

What this means for buyers

This is one of the better negotiating environments Austin buyers have had in a decade, with one big catch: the rate.

• Negotiate beyond price. Ask for seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown. On many homes, a permanent buydown does more for your monthly payment than a small price cut. Ask your lender to show you both options side by side.
• Read builder incentives closely. Builders across Leander, Georgetown, Kyle, and Pflugerville are offering incentives that often land in the $10,000–$30,000 range. Many buydowns are temporary (like a 2-1) or tied to the builder's lender. Compare the total cost, not just the teaser payment. Our new construction page covers what to watch for.
• Don't skip inspections. You have the time and leverage to inspect thoroughly and ask for repairs.
• Plan for refinancing, but don't count on it. Buying now and refinancing later can work, but rates could stay high for a while. Make sure the payment works at today's rate.

If you're starting out, our first-time buyer guide walks through the process step by step.

What this means for sellers

Sellers who adjust to the market are still selling. The ones struggling are pricing for 2022.

• Price for the market you have. With 5.4 months of supply, buyers compare your home against a lot of options. Pricing right at launch usually nets more than chasing the market down with cuts.
• Budget for concessions. Plan for buyers to ask for help with closing costs or a rate buydown. Building that into your plan up front keeps negotiations calm.
• Presentation matters. Pre-listing repairs, good photos, and staging matter more when buyers have time to be picky. Our seller services page explains how we prepare homes for this market.
• Know your number. Online estimates are a starting point. A full comparative market analysis built on recent closed sales is better.

How we update this report

We refresh this page every month after Unlock MLS releases its Central Texas Housing Report, usually around the middle of the following month. Each update:

1. Replaces the headline table with the newest month and keeps the prior month for comparison.
2. Updates the county table and the Freddie Mac rate.
3. Adds a short read on what changed and why, without hype in either direction.

The URL stays the same, so bookmark it. The "updated" date at the top tells you which month you're looking at. Thinking about a rental instead? Our Austin rental property investing guide covers that side of the market.

Talk to our team

Market averages only go so far. Your price point, neighborhood, and timeline change the picture. If you're thinking about buying or selling in the next 6 to 12 months, reach out to our team. We'll pull the numbers for your specific area and give you a straight answer on what we'd do in your position.